Trading for Matt Kemp


It is still the beginning of the off-season and like any good relationship
it starts with the talking phase, and boy is there some talk going on. Scherzer
and Price up for trade, Ervin Santana and Ricky Nolasco wanting tons of money,
and the Dodgers willing to listen on any outfielder not named Puig. That last
one may help the Nationals more than anything. The only reason for shipping off
the prospects it would take to get Price or Scherzer and then signing them long
term is that the Nats believe that Jordan Zimmermann is a definite to test the
free agent waters. That he has the lust for gold in his veins and is already
set on exploring those options.  

Starting pitching for the Nationals wasn’t
a problem in 2013. They ranked seventh in ERA and sixth in FIP by starters for
the season; whereas the offense was ranked in the bottom three for the vast
majority of the season. It was only due to a late surge in August and September
that vaulted them to fifteenth in baseball. The biggest reason for the surge was
that the Nats starters were finally healthy, and the biggest reason they were
near the bottom in all those other months was that the bench was just putrid.

One of the key pieces the Nationals
need on their bench for 2014 is a fourth outfielder, but that doesn’t mean they
need a fourth outfielder quality bat. With Harper and Span both being left
handed and having struggled in 2013 against left handed pitching the Nats might
be best to have their fourth outfielder be someone who swings from the right side
of the plate, and is more talented than the average fourth outfielder, and how
wouldn’t even be a fourth outfielder. With six or seven games a week and three
outfield spots it is possible to have an outfield rotation where each
outfielder starts four or five games a week. This improves the bench and the
health of the starters at the same time while getting everyone consistent
playing time, but you need four talented outfielders to pull it off.  

Enter the Dodgers. With the emergence
of Puig and approximately $4.5 billion due to their other three outfielders
they are now looking to get rid of one and it just so happens that one of them
fits everything the Nationals need. A right handed hitter with well above
average production who can play all three outfield spots. Matt Kemp is very much
that player and his acquisition could even push Span into being the full time
fourth outfielder if he is all the way back from the injuries that bothered him
in 2013. The biggest downside with Kemp is he is owed a lot of money. Somewhere
in the neighborhood of $128 million over the next six seasons. That is a lot of
money to pay for a fourth outfielder, but it is money well spent on a power
hitting MVP level centerfielder.

It is a bit of a mystery as to which
one Kemp is. The injured Kemp of 2013 was much closer to a fourth outfielder
while a healthy Matt Kemp was very much an MVP candidate. It is a $128 million
risk, but because it is that costly of a risk and because Kemp is coming off of
a down season the cost in prospects isn’t going to be anywhere near what it
would be for someone like David Price or Giancarlo Stanton. The Dodgers want
someone to take an outfielder off their hands and if they have come to the
realization that even they don’t have infinite money then Matt Kemp is the one
they should be looking to trade. Crawford has had too many injured years to
have much value left, and Andre Ethier is widely viewed as a platoon corner
outfielder around baseball and won’t net nearly as much in a trade as Kemp.

Matt Kemp gives the Nationals what
they need. At worst he is a well above average fourth outfielder and at best he
is a MVP level hitter from the right side of the plate. They can work him in
slow as part of an outfield rotation and ride the hot hand at times during the
season. This would work to both improve the bench and keep the outfielder
healthier as well as giving the Nationals the ability to start an all right
handed outfield against left handed pitchers if Span and Harper continue to
struggle in that department. The only question is how much of the $128 million
are the Nationals willing to pick up. If it is all of it they won’t have to
trade much more than a couple mid-grade pitching prospects, but if they want
the Dodgers to pick up most of it then we start looking at something much
closer to the cost of David Price. In theory this is the best trade the
Nationals could make this off-season. The trouble comes when trying to put the
theory to practice. It makes perfect sense talent and need wise, but may not
make the monetary sense that it has to for a trade to occur.  



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