The discussion of confidence or clubhouse chemistry is one that is normally
eye roll inducing, but having watched the Nationals so far this season, especially
against the Mets, something is wrong. The Nationals are playing tight. Pitching
mistakes are being compounded by errors in the field and errors in the field
compounded by pitching mistakes. The Nats are working into positive situations
on the bases and then working themselves out of them at the plate. Look no
further than Jayson Werth swinging on the 3-0 pitch yesterday against a pitcher
that had demonstrated no control. The Nationals were two pitches away from
having the bases loaded with no outs and then with one swing they had a runner
on third and two outs. In his entire career Werth has swung 3-0 88 times. The
swinging 3-0 wasn’t the problem though. The problem was Werth summed up what
has gone wrong with the Nationals season.
Werth was trying to make something
happen instead of letting the game come to him. For the Nationals thus far it
is feeling like every good thing has taken a monumental journey to make happen
and that every negative will lead to the worst possible outcome. Every team has
errors happen, but then the pitcher buckles down and picks his teammates up.
That isn’t happening for the Nationals. The Nats have allowed the most unearned
runs in baseball. They have also run themselves out of innings, swung at
pitches they shouldn’t at the plate and continue to make costly errors in the
field. Now it has become an issue, gotten attention and people are talking
about the struggling Nationals and wondering what is wrong with them. The
Nationals have taken mistakes that happen to every team and baseball, buried
them under more mistakes, and now trying to relax and play the game of baseball
will become even more difficult.
Look at the Nats pitching. Neither
their 18.9% K rate or 7.0% walk rate are bad. Both are in line with the
division rival Braves, but the issue isn’t that the Nationals aren’t getting
K’s or aren’t avoiding the walk. It is everything that is happening in the
counts between. After the game yesterday a caller into the sports talk station
said it was time for Steve McCatty to go because this pitching to contact thing
isn’t working. The problem with that idea is that the main issue with the
Nationals and pitching is that they are not pitching to contact. They are
pitching too much to avoid contact. At 54% the Nationals are next to last in
the NL in first pitch strikes, they have seen 35 3-0 counts compared to a
league average of 35, and have only seen 156 0-2 counts compared to a league
average of 161. The Nationals pitchers are pitching out of fear of contact.
Which happens to be the worst thing a pitcher can do.
Good pitchers don’t care about contact
in zero or one strike counts. It is statistically impossible to get a strikeout
before the batter has two strikes against him and therefore good pitchers will
make good quality pitches in those counts and if the batter swings and makes
contact more often than not it will be poor contact and if the batter does make
solid contact on a pitcher’s pitch then the pitcher should tip their hat and
move on with their lives. A symptom of playing tight is any adversity feels
like the worst possible sort of adversity.
Look at Gio
Gonzalez’s disastrous fourth inning Saturday. David Wright led-off
the inning with a triple. With a 3-0 lead this shouldn’t be that big of a deal.
Get the next guy out and even if it is on a ground out or fly out then you
still have a 3-1 lead, but at least an out has been made. Gonzalez didn’t do
this. He pitched to avoid contact to John Buck, fell behind 3-1 and walked him.
Gonzalez then got a come backer that held the runners and a hard ground ball to
third and Wright ended up being tagged out in a run down. No damage had been
done thus far and Gio Gonzalez and the Nationals were one pitch from being out
of the inning, but then Gonzalez walked Duda on four pitches, gave up a 1-1
single to Cowgill, walked Tejada on a 3-2 pitch, gave up a single to Turner on
a 1-0 pitch, and a single to Murphy on a 3-1 pitch before getting David Wright
to ground out to end the inning.
Even when Gio Gonzalez wasn’t giving up walks he was falling behind hitters
and was forced to give in and throw them a pitch they could handle. If he had
pitched in the zone early in the count then the batters would have been behind
and forced to swing at his pitches. The triple to David Wright set the inning
off on the wrong tone as Gonzalez then was pitching to avoid contact and get a
strikeout when he shouldn’t have changed his approach at all and remained
concerned with getting ahead of hitters and simply getting outs. Each issue in
that inning became exasperated by the next issue and Gio wore them all like an
anchor around his neck.
Major league players should not succumb to pressure. The fielding errors the
Nats have made should have no impact on how the pitcher works the next batter,
a runner on base shouldn’t feel like an automatic run, and it shouldn’t feel
like an unexpected journey to score Nats runners that happen to get on base. In
case you were wondering the Nationals are .200/.333/.345 with two outs and
runners in scoring position. That happens to be right around league average
which would be good but in all situations the Nats have an OPS .029 points
above league average.
From the looks of everything the
Nationals need to loosen up, relax, and play the game of baseball. Pressure and
expectations shouldn’t affect major league baseball players. Making it to the
majors is much greater pressure than anything faced once there. The Nats roster
wasn’t thought of as one of the most talented assembled for no reason. Now they
have to play like it, and that won’t happen by force of will or by trying to
make it happen. It can only happen, and will only happen when the Nationals
stop trying to force it. It is impossible to win 98 games and the World Series in
April, but that is what it looks like the Nationals are trying to do. In order
to play up to their ability they need to stop trying to force themselves on the
game of baseball and let the game come to them.
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